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2024-12-13 05:00:43

Analyst: "The economy is confident and the policy is unprecedented." "The economy is confident and the policy is unprecedented." Chen Xing, chief macro analyst of Caitong Securities, said that this year's economic operation is generally stable, and risks in key areas have been resolved in an orderly and effective manner. The meeting has confidence in this year's economic performance, and it is expected that the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development will be successfully completed throughout the year. Chen Xing believes that the Politburo meeting mentioned "stabilizing the property market and stock market" for the first time, and the core is to stabilize the prices of these two types of assets, namely house prices and stock indexes, which will help to repair the balance sheet of the residential sector, thus boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand.Pacific Securities: The historical low of the valuation office of liquor industry is about to be repaired. The Pacific Securities Research Report pointed out that the liquor industry is rationally slowing down, and the valuation office is at a historical low, and it is about to be repaired. Next year, the leading growth target will generally drop to single digits. However, the accumulated inventory risk and pricing pressure still need time to gradually ease after the imbalance between supply and demand has intensified in the past two years and the previous industry bubble has receded. With the economic recovery stimulated by this round of policies and the stabilization of the bottom of the real estate industry, the liquor industry is expected to usher in a wave of recovery. Since 2023, industry differentiation has intensified, but with the improvement of management level and refined channel operation in recent years, excellent wine enterprises have stronger marketing foundation and anti-risk ability compared with previous downward cycles. The price of high-end wine determines the brand position, so the approval price is more important, which depends on the choice of quantity and price and the control of approval price by wine enterprises. Sub-high-end needs to pay more attention to channel risks. The high growth brought by pre-distribution investment needs to be tested in the downward period, and once the channel collapses and stalls, it is difficult to reverse it. Real estate wine pays attention to the growth momentum of internal product structure and the market potential in and around the province. The upgrading speed determines the slope and the ceiling determines the space. Suggested attention: Wuliangye, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Shuijingfang, etc.A Chilean court revoked the government's ban on iron ore projects. According to La Tercera, an environmental court in Chile sided with Andeiron, a Chilean exploration and mining company, and declared the government's decision to reject Dominga's iron ore project invalid.


Huaxi Securities: In 2025, the rate of RRR cut and interest rate cut may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp. Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that this Politburo meeting revisited "moderately loose monetary policy", and the market inevitably associated with the magnificent combination of monetary and fiscal policies in 2008-2010. Specific to this round of monetary policy, it may be similar to it, not only the tone has changed, but also the framework has changed from the previous cross-cycle (or both cross-cycle and counter-cycle) to counter-cycle adjustment, which is likely to point to an increase in the adjustment range of reserve ratio and policy interest rate. Looking forward to 2025, the rate of single RRR cut and interest rate cut of monetary policy may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp (the rate in 2024), and the possibility of further increasing the rate in the face of extreme circumstances is not ruled out. The specific degree and duration of easing may depend on the economic situation.South Korea's Ministry of Finance: The recent market volatility is a bit excessive, and measures to stabilize the market will be taken to deal with it.CITIC Securities: The supply or trend of government bonds will increase, and the subsequent banking system will face certain undertaking pressure. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the supply or trend of government bonds will increase in the medium and long term, and the subsequent banking system will face certain undertaking pressure. Under the logic of debt conversion, the continuous issuance of replacement special bonds will reduce the capital occupation of the banking system, but it will also increase the pressure of interest margin on the asset side, which may have a greater impact on small and medium-sized rural commercial banks. In addition, banks undertake a large number of medium and long-term interest-rate bonds or put pressure on their liquidity indicators, but at present, all indicators of state-owned banks have a high margin of safety, and we think the overall impact may be more controllable. At the beginning of next year, we can focus on the influence of small and medium-sized banks' bond buying behavior, or form a certain bullish support for long-term bond interest rates.


South Korean opposition leader Li Zaiming said that the budget will be dealt with today.59 Hong Kong stocks were repurchased by the company yesterday, with Tencent Holdings, AIA and Aauto Quicker having the largest amount of repurchase. On December 9, a total of 59 Hong Kong stocks were repurchased by the company, and the amount of repurchase of 11 stocks exceeded HK$ 10 million. Among them, Tencent Holdings, AIA and Aauto Quicker -W have the largest repurchase amounts, with the repurchase amounts of HK$ 701 million, HK$ 61.927 million and HK$ 48.4189 million respectively.Many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea. "Is it safe to travel to South Korea?" On the 9th, travelnoire, a platform focusing on African tourists, raised such a question. According to the report, the recent political events in South Korea have cast a shadow over this popular tourist destination. In fact, as the emergency martial law storm in South Korea continues to ferment, many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea. South Korea's "Asian Economy" reported on the 9th that the political and social uncertainty in South Korea has further intensified, and the inbound tourism market in South Korea, which has just resumed after the epidemic, is once again facing severe challenges. South Korea's New Zealand News Agency reported that due to the increasing political uncertainty in South Korea, many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea.

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